AI CAGR Expected to Average 37%
Artificial Intelligence CAGR (Continuous Average Growth Rate) is expected to average 37% year over year. Which gives it a doubling period of 1.9 years.
- CAGR is the Continuous Average Growth Rate (Percent Growth Per Year)
- The Compound Law of Doubling or 'Rule of 72' states that to determine the doubling period simply divide the percentage rate into 72.
- Doubling period is 1.9 years.
This is not growth - this is exponential growth.
Google has declared an internal 'code red' about it. In otherwords in a few years if they cannot match Nvidia their share price will tank, SuperSearchEngines will provide much better service. They are claiming their internal AI chips can outperform the A100. Grant you they sell none to the public?
Ameya Paleja
How Many AH100's are Being Manufactured a Year?
It is very difficult to find out Nvidia's production but one firm estimates it at 12 million GPU's a year.
"The estimate(Opens in a new window) comes from Jon Peddie Research, which has been tracking GPU shipments from factories. Its 12 million figure represents a 7% increase from Q4, when Nvidia and AMD shipped over 11 million cards. In Q1, about 80% of the cards shipped were from Nvidia’s GPU line, the remaining 20% were from AMD."
Considering a single AI chip cost at $10,000 a pop - or up to $200,000 for a fabric motherboard - only the richest companies can buy them.
It will take longer for humans (and electricians) to pull the permits and this will be the biggest factor in the slowdown of AI.
Anyone investing in Nvidia or anything AI related is going to win big.
